Kevin D. Reilly
James J. Buckley
Xidong Zheng
Yong Hui Chen
Fuzzy Probability Modeling and Applications
Proc. 2003 Huntsville Simulation Conf., 579-584.
Abstract
In this paper, we first sketch conventional ("crisp") approaches to obtain performance values for variables
such as utilization, number in the system, throughput, response time, and lost requests
(when relevant). Two
calculation schemes are followed, one from arrival- and service-rates and another from
transition probability
matrices. These values are to be associated with cost and benefit factors and, with
multiple runs over a finite
set of choices (dictated by the practical situation), optimizations in outcome become
possible. After these
sketches, fuzziness is introduced. A desired goal is to compute results from fuzzy
computations using
conventional simulation. The first goal sought is to have the conventional simulations
produce results
quicker. A second goal is to get results that are either identical or which
represent respectable
approximations. Since this goal has proved somewhat elusive, a third goal seeks steps
to improve on the
situation and results show a high degree of success but with some remaining issues.
Key Words
Fuzzy probability, fuzzy transition matrices, arrival rates, service times, "fuzzification time."